Busy weekend. Woke up early yesterday and took Lisa to a knitting class in Northampton. Ran by Home Depot and got the last of the 1x3 and 1x4s to finish the barn trim. Stopped by the bookstore and browsed for a few minutes. Drove back home and painted half of the trim. Very dark green; I thought it'd go well with the roof. Drove back to Northampton and picked up Lisa, then went back home and worked on day-job related things until midnight.
Up again somewhat early Sunday. Went straight outside and painted the rest of the trim. Started on a batch of bread while waiting for the paint to dry. Worked like a banshee cutting and nailing trim while the baby chicks jumped up and down to get a look at the goings-on. But I do believe it's just about there. Wrapped things up just as it got dark, made dinner for the kids, and now it's back to work on day-job related things, almost certainly beyond midnight.
Sigh.
Leaves are turning, geese (the flying kind) are leaving, and geese (the driving kind) are coming into the state. Must be fall again. Believe our first freeze will be tonight.
Reading material: The Long Emergency, James Kunstler.
Sunday, September 30, 2007
Friday, September 28, 2007
Worth Reading
From today's WSJ:
Historic Surge
In Grain Prices
Roils Markets
By SCOTT KILMAN
September 28, 2007; Page A1
Rising prices and surging demand for the crops that supply half of the world's calories are producing the biggest changes in global food markets in 30 years, altering the economic landscape for everyone from consumers and farmers to corporate giants and the world's poor.
"The days of cheap grain are gone," says Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting concern.
This year the prices of Illinois corn and soybeans are up 40% and 75%, respectively, from a year ago. Kansas wheat is up 70% or more. And a growing number of economists and agribusiness executives think the run-ups could last as long as a decade, raising the cost of all kinds of food.
In the past, such increases have been caused by temporary supply disruptions. Following a poor harvest, farmers would rush to capitalize on higher crop prices by planting more of that crop the next season, sending prices back down. But the current rally, which started a year ago in the corn-futures trading pit at the Chicago Board of Trade, is different.
Not only have prices remained high, but the rally has swept up other commodities such as barley, sorghum, eggs, cheese, oats, rice, peas, sunflower and lentils. In Georgia, the nation's No. 1 poultry-producing state, slaughterhouses are charging a record wholesale price for three-pound chickens, up 15% from a year ago.
What's changed is that powerful new sources of demand are emerging. In addition to U.S. government incentives that encourage businesses to turn corn and soybeans into motor fuel, the growing economies of Asia and Latin America are enabling hundreds of millions of people to spend more on food. A growing middle class in these regions is eating more meat and milk, which in turn is increasing demand for grain to feed livestock. In the U.S., a beef cow has to eat roughly six pounds of grain to put on a pound of weight, and a hog about four pounds.
The reversal of a long-term trend toward lower grain prices could have profound effects on the world's ability to feed its poor. Global grain stockpiles are being drawn down to their tightest levels in three decades, leaving the world vulnerable to shocks brought on by bad harvests. And it's far from clear how much more land could be brought into production or to what extent advances in biotechnology might increase crop yields in the future.
American families, which spend 9.9% of their disposable income on food, are facing the fastest-rising food prices in 17 years. The consumer's cost for everything from yogurt and popcorn to breakfast cereal and fast-food french fries is climbing. In U.S. cities last month, the average retail price of a pound loaf of whole-wheat bread was up 24% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Whole milk hit $3.807 a gallon, up 26%.
Historic Surge
In Grain Prices
Roils Markets
By SCOTT KILMAN
September 28, 2007; Page A1
Rising prices and surging demand for the crops that supply half of the world's calories are producing the biggest changes in global food markets in 30 years, altering the economic landscape for everyone from consumers and farmers to corporate giants and the world's poor.
"The days of cheap grain are gone," says Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co., a Chicago commodity forecasting concern.
This year the prices of Illinois corn and soybeans are up 40% and 75%, respectively, from a year ago. Kansas wheat is up 70% or more. And a growing number of economists and agribusiness executives think the run-ups could last as long as a decade, raising the cost of all kinds of food.
In the past, such increases have been caused by temporary supply disruptions. Following a poor harvest, farmers would rush to capitalize on higher crop prices by planting more of that crop the next season, sending prices back down. But the current rally, which started a year ago in the corn-futures trading pit at the Chicago Board of Trade, is different.
Not only have prices remained high, but the rally has swept up other commodities such as barley, sorghum, eggs, cheese, oats, rice, peas, sunflower and lentils. In Georgia, the nation's No. 1 poultry-producing state, slaughterhouses are charging a record wholesale price for three-pound chickens, up 15% from a year ago.
What's changed is that powerful new sources of demand are emerging. In addition to U.S. government incentives that encourage businesses to turn corn and soybeans into motor fuel, the growing economies of Asia and Latin America are enabling hundreds of millions of people to spend more on food. A growing middle class in these regions is eating more meat and milk, which in turn is increasing demand for grain to feed livestock. In the U.S., a beef cow has to eat roughly six pounds of grain to put on a pound of weight, and a hog about four pounds.
The reversal of a long-term trend toward lower grain prices could have profound effects on the world's ability to feed its poor. Global grain stockpiles are being drawn down to their tightest levels in three decades, leaving the world vulnerable to shocks brought on by bad harvests. And it's far from clear how much more land could be brought into production or to what extent advances in biotechnology might increase crop yields in the future.
American families, which spend 9.9% of their disposable income on food, are facing the fastest-rising food prices in 17 years. The consumer's cost for everything from yogurt and popcorn to breakfast cereal and fast-food french fries is climbing. In U.S. cities last month, the average retail price of a pound loaf of whole-wheat bread was up 24% from a year ago, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Whole milk hit $3.807 a gallon, up 26%.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Whew.
Taking a brief break before diving back into the day job until ... oh, midnight, if this past week's history has been any indicator. But I'm making progress. Swear.
Miscellaneous tidbits:
*** I've moved the baby chicks out of the brooder and into the new barn. All I have to do now is add the trim and build the chicken run, and I can put everyone (except the ducks) in the new addition.
*** In another chicken-related vein, we put a light in the current coop. Hopefully, the chicks will decide it's back to summer and start laying. Chickens generally lay at 22 weeks, and the older chickens are ... 22 weeks. Lisa made me an egg basket in an uncontrollable burst of optimism.
*** Biofuels, The Good. A Charlie Rose interview with Luiz Lula da Silva of Brazil:
*** Biofuels, The Bad: A Reuters story about Jane Goodall's take:
Jane Goodall says biofuel crops hurt rain forests
Wed Sep 26, 6:08 PM ET
Primate scientist Jane Goodall said on Wednesday the race to grow crops for vehicle fuels is damaging rain forests in Asia, Africa and South America and adding to the emissions blamed for global warming.
"We're cutting down forests now to grow sugarcane and palm oil for biofuels and our forests are being hacked into by so many interests that it makes them more and more important to save now," Goodall said on the sidelines of the Clinton Global Initiative, former U.S. President Bill Clinton's annual philanthropic meeting.
As new oil supplies become harder to find, many countries such as Brazil and Indonesia are racing to grow domestic sources of vehicle fuels, such as ethanol from sugarcane and biodiesel from palm nuts.
The United Nations' climate program considers the fuels to be low in carbon because growing the crops takes in heat-trapping gas carbon dioxide.
But critics say demand for the fuels has led companies to cut down and burn forests in order to grow the crops, adding to heat-trapping emissions and leading to erosion and stress on ecosystems.
"Biofuel isn't the answer to everything; it depends where it comes from," she said. "All of this means better education on where fuels are coming from are needed."
Goodall said the problem is especially bad in the Indonesian rain forest where large amounts of palm nut oil is being made. Growers in Uganda -- where her nonprofit group works to conserve Great Apes -- are also looking to buy large parcels of rain forest and cut them down to grow sugar cane, while in Brazil, forest is cleared to grow sugar cane.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/27/health/nutrition/27Best.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1190931264-nnDw5BOmGlWt5jXcOXvfmA
Here's the money graf:
The rules of physics say that distance cycling and distance running are for small people. Rowing and swimming are for people who are big. The physics is so exact that when Dr. Secher tried to predict how fast competitive rowers could go, based only on their sizes and the weights of their boats, he was accurate to within 1 percent.
Explains a lot. Although I'd still like to have seen a graf that explains lazy people who have so much going on at the day job that they haven't been able to get their act together and get back into some serious training.
I'm just sayin'.
Miscellaneous tidbits:
*** I've moved the baby chicks out of the brooder and into the new barn. All I have to do now is add the trim and build the chicken run, and I can put everyone (except the ducks) in the new addition.
*** In another chicken-related vein, we put a light in the current coop. Hopefully, the chicks will decide it's back to summer and start laying. Chickens generally lay at 22 weeks, and the older chickens are ... 22 weeks. Lisa made me an egg basket in an uncontrollable burst of optimism.
*** Biofuels, The Good. A Charlie Rose interview with Luiz Lula da Silva of Brazil:
*** Biofuels, The Bad: A Reuters story about Jane Goodall's take:
Jane Goodall says biofuel crops hurt rain forests
Wed Sep 26, 6:08 PM ET
Primate scientist Jane Goodall said on Wednesday the race to grow crops for vehicle fuels is damaging rain forests in Asia, Africa and South America and adding to the emissions blamed for global warming.
"We're cutting down forests now to grow sugarcane and palm oil for biofuels and our forests are being hacked into by so many interests that it makes them more and more important to save now," Goodall said on the sidelines of the Clinton Global Initiative, former U.S. President Bill Clinton's annual philanthropic meeting.
As new oil supplies become harder to find, many countries such as Brazil and Indonesia are racing to grow domestic sources of vehicle fuels, such as ethanol from sugarcane and biodiesel from palm nuts.
The United Nations' climate program considers the fuels to be low in carbon because growing the crops takes in heat-trapping gas carbon dioxide.
But critics say demand for the fuels has led companies to cut down and burn forests in order to grow the crops, adding to heat-trapping emissions and leading to erosion and stress on ecosystems.
"Biofuel isn't the answer to everything; it depends where it comes from," she said. "All of this means better education on where fuels are coming from are needed."
Goodall said the problem is especially bad in the Indonesian rain forest where large amounts of palm nut oil is being made. Growers in Uganda -- where her nonprofit group works to conserve Great Apes -- are also looking to buy large parcels of rain forest and cut them down to grow sugar cane, while in Brazil, forest is cleared to grow sugar cane.
*** I'm amazed at this one. I mean, what are the Chinese doing here? Don't they know better? How can they say they made a mistake? Without spin? Or bullshit?
Clearly, they have a lot to learn from, ahem, the other side of the Pacific.
CHINESE officials who previously defended the giant Three Gorges Dam as an engineering and economic miracle have admitted that the world's biggest hydropower project is at risk of environmental disaster if accumulating threats are not dealt with promptly.
A forum organised by State Council, China's cabinet, on Tuesday to discuss the dam's accelerating environmental problems concluded that "if no preventive measures are taken, the project could lead to catastrophe", the official Xinhua news agency reported, quoting senior officials at the meeting in Wuhan.
Wang Xiaofeng, the director of the Government's Three Gorges construction body, said that while China had largely overcome many challenges - including funding, technology and the huge displacement of people - it now had to face up to the increasing ecological threats.
These included erosion and landslides around the dam, pollution and "ecological deterioration" caused by "irrational development" along the river, he said.
"We absolutely cannot relax our guard against ecological and environmental security problems created by the Three Gorges project," Mr Wang told the meeting. "We cannot sacrifice our environment for short-term economic prosperity."
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/27/health/nutrition/27Best.html?adxnnl=1&adxnnlx=1190931264-nnDw5BOmGlWt5jXcOXvfmA
Here's the money graf:
The rules of physics say that distance cycling and distance running are for small people. Rowing and swimming are for people who are big. The physics is so exact that when Dr. Secher tried to predict how fast competitive rowers could go, based only on their sizes and the weights of their boats, he was accurate to within 1 percent.
Explains a lot. Although I'd still like to have seen a graf that explains lazy people who have so much going on at the day job that they haven't been able to get their act together and get back into some serious training.
I'm just sayin'.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Going South for the Winter
Lots of geese heading south these days. Honking around the clock.
Exhausted. More tomorrow.
Exhausted. More tomorrow.
Sunday, September 23, 2007
Things Always Take Longer Than You'd Think
Worked my ass off this weekend on the chicken barn.
And all I've got to show for it are the walls. Still need to trim and roof. And since my walls are actually 8'6" apart, and the roofing panels are only 8' long, I'm going to have to get another panel and tin snips. Ack.
Aggravation.
Bottom line is, looks like it'll be another week before the chicks can be sprung from their brooder in the bathroom. I'm not too charmed by it, either.
Busy week ahead. Have to wrap up one project on Monday and start doing the heavy lifting on another. Major pending issues with job opportunity. Have to finish a book chapter this week. Must put together a PowerPoint presentation, also known as one of my least favorite things to do. Ummmm .. a few other things.
Run, bike, swim.
On a slightly different front, couldn't help noticing oil hitting $80/bbl. So here's a trivia question: What do my father, a former Rolling Stone writer, the former chief geologist for Shell, and a bestselling investment banker/writer have in common?
Try peak oil.
Jim Kunstler, who used to write for Rolling Stone, can be pretty damn mean-spirited -- it's like he's looking forward to some sort of apocalyptic scenario involving Cheetos-deprived NASCAR fans in the southern suburbs -- but makes some pretty salient points in his blog.
Colin Campbell's Association for the Study of Peak Oil has a no-frills web page. He's the former chief geologist for Shell. Strikes me as strange that someone who climbed the corporate ladder that far would be willing to do anything besides paint lipstick on this particular pig.
Matt Simmons, a Houston investment banker, has been banging the drum about peak oil for more than a few years. If you want hard facts and figures on where we're going with oil, you've got to check out his page.
And, of course, there's my dad, a petroleum geologist who's been agitating for oil to hit about $200/barrel since 1973. Dad's got three reasons for wanting oil prices to go insane. In reverse order of importance, (a) he would make a lot of money because domestic exploration would be encouraged, (b) he wouldn't have to fight so much Houston traffic, and (c) there might be enough left for his grandchildren to get two miles down the road by the time they're driving.
On a slightly weirder note:
Saying 'I'm hungry,' man rips head off St. Paul hotel's duck
Denver man, 26, arrested after domesticated bird is cornered and killed early Saturday
BY DAVE ORRICK Pioneer Press
Article Last Updated: 09/22/2007 11:45:40 PM CDT
He ripped the head off a live duck inside a hotel lobby.
That's the accusation St. Paul police made early Saturday against a 26-year-old Denver man staying at the Embassy Suites Hotel in downtown St. Paul.
The hotel's spacious lobby atrium features an ornamental pond that at one point contained eight domesticated ducks.
Shortly before 2:35 a.m., Scott D. Clark, who had told hotel employees he was in town on business, chased a duck across the area and cornered it, according to St. Paul police Sgt. John Wuorinen.
I'll admit to having similar fantasies about ripping the heads off a few of my ducks -- they do tend to be a bit obstreperous -- but I doubt I'd do it out of hunger. Duck meat, eh. And at an Embassy Suites? Maybe a slightly lower-end chain ...
And all I've got to show for it are the walls. Still need to trim and roof. And since my walls are actually 8'6" apart, and the roofing panels are only 8' long, I'm going to have to get another panel and tin snips. Ack.
Aggravation.
Bottom line is, looks like it'll be another week before the chicks can be sprung from their brooder in the bathroom. I'm not too charmed by it, either.
Busy week ahead. Have to wrap up one project on Monday and start doing the heavy lifting on another. Major pending issues with job opportunity. Have to finish a book chapter this week. Must put together a PowerPoint presentation, also known as one of my least favorite things to do. Ummmm .. a few other things.
Run, bike, swim.
On a slightly different front, couldn't help noticing oil hitting $80/bbl. So here's a trivia question: What do my father, a former Rolling Stone writer, the former chief geologist for Shell, and a bestselling investment banker/writer have in common?
Try peak oil.
Jim Kunstler, who used to write for Rolling Stone, can be pretty damn mean-spirited -- it's like he's looking forward to some sort of apocalyptic scenario involving Cheetos-deprived NASCAR fans in the southern suburbs -- but makes some pretty salient points in his blog.
Colin Campbell's Association for the Study of Peak Oil has a no-frills web page. He's the former chief geologist for Shell. Strikes me as strange that someone who climbed the corporate ladder that far would be willing to do anything besides paint lipstick on this particular pig.
Matt Simmons, a Houston investment banker, has been banging the drum about peak oil for more than a few years. If you want hard facts and figures on where we're going with oil, you've got to check out his page.
And, of course, there's my dad, a petroleum geologist who's been agitating for oil to hit about $200/barrel since 1973. Dad's got three reasons for wanting oil prices to go insane. In reverse order of importance, (a) he would make a lot of money because domestic exploration would be encouraged, (b) he wouldn't have to fight so much Houston traffic, and (c) there might be enough left for his grandchildren to get two miles down the road by the time they're driving.
On a slightly weirder note:
Saying 'I'm hungry,' man rips head off St. Paul hotel's duck
Denver man, 26, arrested after domesticated bird is cornered and killed early Saturday
BY DAVE ORRICK Pioneer Press
Article Last Updated: 09/22/2007 11:45:40 PM CDT
He ripped the head off a live duck inside a hotel lobby.
That's the accusation St. Paul police made early Saturday against a 26-year-old Denver man staying at the Embassy Suites Hotel in downtown St. Paul.
The hotel's spacious lobby atrium features an ornamental pond that at one point contained eight domesticated ducks.
Shortly before 2:35 a.m., Scott D. Clark, who had told hotel employees he was in town on business, chased a duck across the area and cornered it, according to St. Paul police Sgt. John Wuorinen.
I'll admit to having similar fantasies about ripping the heads off a few of my ducks -- they do tend to be a bit obstreperous -- but I doubt I'd do it out of hunger. Duck meat, eh. And at an Embassy Suites? Maybe a slightly lower-end chain ...
Friday, September 21, 2007
Holy Crap!
A quick break to relay something I'd never thought about, courtesy of John Zogby blogging for the Huffington Post:
...
And perhaps most significantly, a 2008 voter will have to be at least 46 years of age to have cast a ballot in a presidential election where a Bush or a Clinton wasn't an option.
...
I'll be 45 in 2008 (assuming I make it to the election). Not sure how I feel about this one, other than just vaguely nauseated to be so middle-aged.
And for those of you doing the math, it is correct.
1980, Reagan/Bush
1984, Reagan/Bush
1988, Bush/Quayle
1992, Clinton/Gore
1996, Clinton/Gore
2000, Bush/Cheney
2004, Bush/Cheney
Caramba.
...
And perhaps most significantly, a 2008 voter will have to be at least 46 years of age to have cast a ballot in a presidential election where a Bush or a Clinton wasn't an option.
...
I'll be 45 in 2008 (assuming I make it to the election). Not sure how I feel about this one, other than just vaguely nauseated to be so middle-aged.
And for those of you doing the math, it is correct.
1980, Reagan/Bush
1984, Reagan/Bush
1988, Bush/Quayle
1992, Clinton/Gore
1996, Clinton/Gore
2000, Bush/Cheney
2004, Bush/Cheney
Caramba.
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