End of the Year

No great thoughts or resolutions; just the end of the year. Walked, cleaned, baked, cooked, did laundry, kept the woodstove going, scolded dogs, fed chickens and rabbits today -- Lisa's gone to Florida for the week to visit her dad, so it's just me and the boys.

An unholy bunch of snow on the ground, with another foot coming tomorrow. We probably got 10 inches today, on top of the 20 inches already this year. It's about what we got during all of last winter. Tourists are out in force, with all the subtlety of a Bastille mob. There were out-of-state SUVs lined up five deep in front of the gas pumps at the main store this afternoon.

Which is a not-too-elegant segue into Kunstler's 2008 predictions. Even if you don't agree with him, he's a hell of a lot of fun to read. I think you might see his photo in Webster's, under "schadenfreude."

For the tiny fraction of people who actually pay attention to real events -- those, for instance, who know the difference between Narnia and Kandahar -- the final hours of 2007 leading into the fog-shrouded abyss of 2008 must induce great racking shudders of nausea. Has there ever been a society so exquisitely rigged for implosion? The whole listing, creaking, reeking edifice stands like one of those obsolete Las Vegas pleasure palaces awaiting a mere pulse of electrons to ignite a thousand explosive charges perfectly placed to blow away the structural supports.

The inertia holding everything together that I described in last year's forecast finally melted away at mid-summer and events began spooling out of control. Specifically, the massive tonnage of debt-backed securities circulating through the financial sector stood revealed for the mostly worthless bales of paper they truly are, and the investment community was left suspended in mid-air, grinning unconvincingly, like Wile E. Coyote thirteen yards beyond the edge of the mesa, with a sputtering grenade in each hand and an anvil tied to his ankles ...

I suppose I do have a couple of minor resolutions -- more time with the kids, more production on the day job, finish my books, grow more of our own food, a speedy and complete rehab, etc. -- but nothing really too terribly profound. Hope that's not jinxing things somehow.

Here's to a decent 2008, anyway.

Postscript: Wouldn't you know it. The folks down the road are doing their own fireworks show. And Pepper is now sitting on top of my head, shaking like a damn jackhammer. A good dog, but not excessively fond of loud noise.

Sloshy

Rained a good chunk of today, then warmed up. Snow melting into sloshy stuff all over the place. Not terribly cold, though. Went for a moderate walk this afternoon, probably for another one tonight.

Spent most of today talking with Lisa about plans for 2008. Four pigs or six pigs? What kind of seeds? Hard or soft cheeses? To tap maple or not to tap? More chickens, just for meat? Thinking about going to the NOFA-Massachusetts winter conference mid-month. Frustrating part will be getting bunches of really good knowledge -- beekeeping, preserving, sugaring -- and probably not being able to do anything about it for six months. Sigh.

Also am thinking about how I'll want to spend my rehab. It's looking as though it'll be a month (and maybe two) before I can even think about training, looking at a computer, writing, cooking, or working on the land; in other words, any of the things I do with my time. I suppose I'm very capable of sitting on my ass, getting fat and watching endless loops of "Law & Order." About the only series that I haven't seen that I'm interested in seeing would be "The Wire." I'll hope for a good Amazon or Craigslist deal.

All in all, I suspect my best bet will be to whip out the library card and pick up a ton of books next month, maybe a trainer stand for the bike. That'll help, but there's got to be something I can do to keep from going completely batshit. Maybe some sort of volunteer work that only involves one arm?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. Me and a bunch of guys from Iraq. I got no problems, I know. Wah. Poor me. And bright spot! The collies and I are back on speaking terms. Actually, I'm on speaking terms with Pepper. She seems very pleased. Stink is still ... a Stink. With a capital 'S.' He isn't sorry in the slightest for having eaten the better chunk of a Christmas ham.

On the frugal front, here's an interesting concept -- energy resolutions for the new year.

Off to do some writing.

Walkabouts and Bad Dogs

Quiet Christmas. Boys got books, video games and clothes, mostly. I got Lisa a plane ticket to see her father in Florida and another Bohus sweater kit; she got me a workshop at the New England Cheesemaking Supply in Ashfield, Mass. Looking forward to it, though it'll have to wait until April. I have a feeling my shoulder's not going to be up to pulling mozarella and cutting mascarpone in time for the February class.

Been walking quite a bit lately, two and three walks a day. Don't feel like running, swimming, or biking. It's been nice outside, not too cold -- about 30 degrees or so -- and no snow, sleet or ice expected until tomorrow. Big full moon and quite a few stars. We've got about a dozen houses on our block (two full-time residents), and only a couple of families up for the holidays. Always amazes me that people will shell out hundreds of thousands for a place and never visit. Not that I'm complaining.

The good deal about the walking is that it's helped me sleep a bit better. I generally get to sleep around midnight, and my shoulder wakes me up around 430a or so. The walking put me out like a light last night -- went for three walks -- but the shoulder got me up around 5a. That, and the sound of chomping in the kitchen. Went downstairs to investigate, and the collies had managed to get on top of the kitchen island and chow down on the Christmas ham bone.

Bad dogs. Very, very bad dogs.

Went by the post office today. Seems like the garden catalogs are as bad as the Christmas ones. Probably won't see spring for another four months, and they're already flooding the mailbox. I'm pretty sure it's Seed Savers Exchange for us this year.

Lots of work to do this week. Taking vacation from the day job, but I've got a couple of book deadlines looming, a computer monitor that needs fixing, and a ton of cleaning to be done.

I also want to take some walks and not think about the shoulder.

Christmas Eve 2007

Peace on earth. Goodwill toward men. Etc.

Except at our local market, which was mayhem late this afternoon. And it was just my own damn fault. Truly. I'd gotten everything we needed for Christmas dinner, except cheese and broccoli (the cheese being the really important thing).

Drove to the market -- you'd think there'd been a simultaneous evacuation of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, judging from the parking lot. And it was asshats on parade, with some lady from God knows where (not here) screeching into her cell phone because there was too much ice on her driveway.

Perhaps she was expecting sand dunes?

Anyway, I grabbed my cheese and broccoli, and then Gordon, the owner, saw me.

"More eggs?" he asked, pleadingly.

Yikes. I'd brought eight dozen down on Friday. I looked at the egg cooler, and they were ...

"Gone," he said.

Holy crap. Green Mountain Eggs and Ham is doing well. Went home and cleaned a couple of dozen eggs. I had four dozen and change, but I had five turkey eggs, which rounded things out to five dozen. So everyone gets a turkey egg. At least, everyone who buys the next five dozen eggs. And Gordon (who's open tomorrow) hopefully has enough eggs to last another day.

All I'm thinking is, the small Arucana flock had better start laying, ASAP.

It'll be a low-key Christmas this year. I'm a little preoccupied and damn near overwhelmed by the shoulder mess. It's been a busy -- and so far, not terribly productive -- time for the day job and book-writing. Financially, we're in the same boat as a lot of people, just hoping for no big waves. So we didn't go overboard this year on the kids, certainly not on ourselves or anyone else. I have a feeling a lot of people went the same route, which is maybe not such a bad thing.

I'll hope for a bit of peace and quiet tomorrow. It may be asking too much, but I'll hope, anyway.

Could've Been Much Worse.

I could, for example, have passed out in a Wal Mart. Which I almost did.

Sorry. Can you imagine anything more simultaneously horrifying, mortifying and depressing?

I digress. I was at Wal Mart because it's next to a video game store, and Will wanted some replacement video games for Christmas. As long as I was there, I thought I'd get light bulbs and a cat box. No particular connection between the two, it just needed doing.

Got about 10 minutes into the store and the shoulder blade felt like it was just getting pulled off my back. Started to get very dizzy from the pain and almost pulled down a rack or two of clothes. Which would've been nothing unusual for Wal Mart at Christmas -- "He was just overcome by the excitment of it all!" -- but, still. Ugh.

Made it home, barely. Lisa took care of the chickens, and I poured myself into a really hot bath, took a monster ibuprofen and a big, fat, prescription pain pill. Which I hardly ever do. I'm kind of in the ether right now. Damn, I have got to get this fixed. I don't think this slushy, wet weather helps the arthritis any.

New Year's resolution to self: Get this fixed. Rehabilitate. Seriously.

The boys are putting up our Christmas village, which is one of my favorite things to watch them do together. We started out buying little ceramic stores, etc., when we lived in Westchester in 1998 -- drove all the way up to East Arlington, Vermont, for our first ones. The East Arlington store has long since closed, but we try to add a couple of pieces every year. So it's more like a Christmas metropolis.

I think they know that watching them work on something together is one of my very favorite things in the world. It's really all I need for Christmas.

Hmmmmmmmm.

So John has a shot at another job. He was going to work at the mountain, but they never returned his call about when he could start. I offered to take him down there and stake out the Human Resources office, but he said if they didn't want to return his call, he sure as hell didn't want to give them any of his time. Good boy, no? Anyway, one of the local inns said they'd give him a tryout as a dishwasher. He'll have the job if The Hair doesn't become an issue.

The shoulder report is done, and it's pretty depressing. Scheduled surgery for Jan. 21. A few bone spurs are going to need to be removed, rotator cuff resewn in one and maybe two places, labrum resected, and oh, hell, I can't even remember it all. About the only silver lining is that it can be done arthroscopically. I'm going to be in pain for two weeks, useless for four to six weeks, left-handed for two to three months, and out of rehab in six months. I might be able to do a very small August or September race, but it's going to be a long, slow trip.

Quite the spectacle yesterday -- the firewood guy was delivering a cord and went off our driveway into four feet of snow. This normally wouldn't have been a problem, but he was in a one-ton dump truck. We pulled all the wood out, dug around the truck, tried pulling with a truck ... no dice. Finally had to call a large tow truck in and have him pulled out. He was not happy. He said he'll come back with a skidder and knock the snow banks back three or four feet, though.

Hope he comes soon -- more snow tonight.

And finally, this game is just crack:

No Kidding

Been waiting for this to happen, courtesy of the NY Times:

December 18, 2007
Food and Fuel Compete for Land
By ANDREW MARTIN

Shopping at a Whole Foods Market in suburban Chicago, Meredith Estes said food prices have jumped so much she has resorted to coupons. Charles T. Rodgers Jr., an Arkansas cattle rancher, said normal feed rations so expensive and scarce he is scrambling for alternatives. In Oregon, Jack Joyce, the owner of Rogue Ales, said the cost of barley malt has soared 88 percent this year.

For years, cheap food and feed were taken for granted in the United States.

But now the price of some foods is rising sharply, and from the corridors of Washington to the aisles of neighborhood supermarkets, a blame alert is under way.

Among the favorite targets is ethanol, especially for food manufacturers and livestock farmers who seethe at government mandates for ethanol production. The ethanol boom, they contend, is raising corn prices, driving up the cost of producing dairy products and meat, and causing farmers to plant so much corn as to crowd out other crops.

The results are working their way through the marketplace, in this view, with overall consumer grocery costs up roughly 5 percent in a year and feed costs up more than 20 percent.

Now, with Congress poised to adopt a new mandate that would double the volume of ethanol made from corn, ethanol skeptics say a fateful moment has arrived, with the nation about to commit itself to decades of competition between food and fuel for the use of agricultural land.

“This is like a runaway freight train,” said Scott Faber, a lobbyist for the Grocery Manufacturers Association, who complained that ethanol has the same “magical effect” on politicians as the tooth fairy and Santa Claus have on children. “It’s great news for corn farmers, but terrible news for consumers.”

Digging Out

Spent Saturday running amok before the storm started -- loaded up on feed at the Agway, groceries at the store, grains at the co-op. Not a whole hell of a lot worth mentioning going on Saturday.

Woke up Sunday to a foot of snow. Sigh. I'd spent a fair chunk of Friday lunch and early evening shoveling our driveway, but that was just three or four inches. This was a little more involved, so Lisa, Will and I broke out the shovels. I should explain about our driveway: It's 650 feet long. So in a little more than three hours, we cleared a 650-foot long by six-foot wide by one-foot deep.

For those of you keeping score, that's 3,900 square feet of snow. Which is about 145 cubic yards. Six dump trucks.

Sigh. My shoulder is speaking to me today; mostly, asking, "Why?" Not as bad as it could be, though. I was pretty careful not to twist it -- I just used my right arm for lifting and pushing. Which reminds me. Orthopaedist on Wednesday. Wah. Poor me.

An Interesting Post. More Later.

Very interesting post from another blog:

I read a term today, that I was unable to find a meaning for: “End-of-the-Boom Psychology,” and I found the term so provocative, so “media speak,” so “spin doctor,” that I started thinking about the emotional and psychological impact on people who no longer have access to extracting mortgage equity, home equity loans or credit cards. They could have called it the “Depression Mentality” or the ‘Great Spending Contractions,’ because once a family has to start cutting back on their spending, like labor, the economic pressure squeezes will happen closer together and become more painful with each contraction, but without the baby after it’s all over. Less spending will mean major job loss, and more contractions. Inflation means less discretionary spending. No savings means relying more on credit and debt, but what happens when these sources dry up or are maxed out?

First, a few tidbits of information to provide a backdrop to our discussion:

(1) There appears to be an inverse relationship between savings and access to credit/home refinancing. In other words, in those countries where credit cards are introduced, savings rates plummet. “It’s not real money, it’s plastic.” (until the bill comes in). Most expect to pay off their credit cards each month. Most don’t actually do it, and the ones that do pay them off each month are called “dead beats” by the credit card companies.

(2) In trends all over the world, middle class citizens in emerging economies quickly take to the habit of ‘borrowing in order to spend,’ usually with credit cards.

(3) Wealthy and cash-strapped households use home equity differently. Whereas the wealthy tend to use their cash to leverage making other equity-type purchases, such as second homes, cash strapped households pay off personal consumption expenditures (credit cards) (1).

(4) People tend to buy more consumer goods with credit cards and home refinancing, than if they were forced to withdraw from savings for the same purchase.

(5) As about 2/3rds of American households do not save in a typical year, and average over $8,000 in credit card debt, they increasingly rely on credit cards for basic and emergency purposes.

(6) Despite the potential risk of credit default, even relatively poor credit card users are extremely profitable to credit card companies. In fact, they make most of their money in late fees, over-limit, and related costs to the consumer. Most mortgage companies make most of their money in the first seven years of home ownership. Therefore, any money collected on defaulted loans, assuming a stable housing market, is gravy. (2)

(7) Beyond basic necessities, increasing income and consumption does not translate into lifestyle happiness or contentment. Positional wealth (a new BMW or exclusive club membership) is more expensive, but does not translate into feelings of happiness as great as the feelings you got from going from “no car” to “wreck,” and from “wreck” to “first new car.” After that, the pleasure of one new car compared to another is a rather minor jump in “happiness.” The thrill is usually in the anticipation of buying it. (3)

(8) Many people are in denial about the level of credit card debt that they hold, on average underestimating by a factor of two.

(9) Money is one of the top issues couples fight about. The way one spends (or saves) money reflects one’s values. One “shop-a-holic” in the family is enough to cause severe financial strain. Two is much, much worse.

Predictions

I’d like to make a few predictions as those who have become accustomed to using home equity to finance consumer purchases face the difficult reality that that option is no longer available to them and to offer a few suggestions:

(1) “Consuming” isn’t a matter of shopping consciously and deliberately for necessary purchases. It has become a recreation, as well as a “’dream world,’ where fantasy, play, inner desire, escape and emotion loom large.” It will be reduced reluctantly and under great personal strain.

(2) Driving an SUV, remodeling one’s kitchen, dressing in the latest fashions and providing one’s kids with the latest electronic gadgets is a reflection of social status as well as preference. Not “keeping up with the Jones” as cliché as it is, has changed to include the neighbors you’d LIKE to have, (or see on TV) not only those who live around you. While “shabby chic” is “in,” plain shabby isn’t. Therefore, not having access to money may feel like a loss of status or class identity. Upscaling can be defensive to keep one’s social position. Face this squarely.

(3) Shopping habits will be hard to break and credit card debt will continue to mount. Many will be incredulous that their homes have not and will not increase in value in the upcoming year, so will continue to rack up consumer debt as if refinancing remains an option. They will believe other people’s houses go down in value, but not their own.

(4) Regardless of their current income, homeowners who begin to believe that their access to ATM home equity has actually stopped will suddenly notice how much more money they owe on their homes and feel dramatically poorer. It will be a shock to learn that even cutting away the “extravagant” spending will not bring their budgets into line. The distinction between “luxury” and “comfort” will be blurry and they will be shocked when forced to realize that “simple pleasures” like vacations or cell phones are “luxuries.” This sense will be pervasive and depressing to them. They will feel “out of it” in being unable to buy the latest “in thing.”

(5) Most will see their situation as “personal” and “blame-worthy,” and not as a participation in a commercial /cultural phenomenon. Keeping one’s credit card purchases “under control” is seen strictly as an issue of self-discipline and maturity, and social and industry pressures will be ignored or discounted. “Outrage”at changing financial conditions in the country will be kept to a minimum by those most in debt. Debt has become the new ‘opiate of the people.’

(6) The sense of loss will be felt most acutely around the children: no longer being able to “afford” better neighborhood schools or private schools, computers, lessons, cable TV and high-speed internet, and extra-curricular activities. They may face teen anger at no longer enjoying the “necessities” of life like cell phones. They may face guilt and feel like bad parents.

(7) As the dollar continues to be devalued, the cost of two adults working in the labor market will continue to increase in terms of a second car, child-care costs, cell phones, career wardrobe and time-saving expenses. “Pressure-relieving release valves” will also get more expensive, and will be the first to go. As financial necessity requires them to stop take-out food purchases, dry cleaning, health/stress-relieving experiences such as massage and gym membership, stress and anxiety will increase. Illness, relationship problems, domestic violence, drug and alcohol use, stress-related disorders, depression, and a whole host of other psychological difficulties will increase.

(8) Some estimates predict that between 25-50% of households live paycheck to paycheck in the US. Unanticipated but common expenses such as car repair, home repairs, health care emergencies etc. will sink these families deeper into credit card debt, which will eventually boost their interest rates. This will continue a downward financial spiral.

(9) “New” methods of getting into debt will continue to be offered including loans on retirement monies and life insurance policies. All will be designed to extract from you the very air you breathe and leave you worse off. Those that pursue these options will eventually not be able to ‘dig themselves deeper into debt’ because TPTB will take away the shovel. But at that point, they will still be in a hole, and be very very deep. This will happen on a community-wide level as well as a personal level. Communities, in a desperate search for new sources of funding, will sell off water rights, utility rights, etc and will also end up worse off financially.

(10) In the last twenty years, private ownership has replaced public consumption: private swimming pools have replaced community pools, cell phones have replaced public pay phones, cars have replaced public transportation. We have expanded private libraries while under-funding public ones. As families can no longer afford these private costs, there will no longer be public options in place to substitute. As tax dollars shrink, those services that are provided will be reduced or eliminated. If the “catch up” happens at all, it will be a long, slow transition back to a more collective world.

(11) Business-dominated government will continue to advocate solutions that will promote private consumption and production. Just as they discouraged public laundries in favor of selling individual washing machines a hundred years ago, they will continue to promote regulations and restrictions that make common–wealth solutions difficult at best.

(12) The ways in which families “contract” financially will have a tremendous impact on their communities. Where they continue to shop, repair, recreate, worship and donate to, will be the shops, laborers, and institutions that remain available to them as times get tougher and increasingly local.

(13) “Joy rides” will continue to be a form of recreation, despite their increasing costs. When in motion, people feel lighter and more carefree. They will sacrifice quite a bit before eliminating an “unnecessary” drive for ice cream, leaf-peeping, etc.

(14) Learning to live in a “cash economy” is a learned skill, as is learning to live within one’s means.

(15) Hanging around a chocolate shop might be a bad idea for dieters. Watching TV ads, high-gloss consumer magazines and mall visits might be a bad idea for those pulling in their spending.

(16) In facing difficult financial times, those who focus on values that stress family, religion, community, social commitment, equity and personal meaning will have an easier time than those scrambling for the remnants of a prior consumptive-based lifestyle.

(17) Some families will begin the contractions by establishing a waiting period for purchases. During these “waiting periods,” the person often finds that the “urge to buy something” often fades. Some will discuss purchase goals with family or trusted friends, and brainstorm other options. “Saving up” for big purchases may also happen more often.

(18) Misery will increase if those in debt don’t figure out how to have fun cheaply. Developing a list of free or low cost leisure activities one can do by yourself, with a special other, and with a group is one coping strategy. Leisure often takes a distant second in an income-generating/spending view of life. If families keep fun and leisure on the list when cash is tight, they will release some of the enormous pressure that will build up.

(19) While divorce will seem like a welcome break from the “stress” of being married, it will make financial issues much, much worse. Many will reconsider and reflect on marital vows that included words “for better or for worse; for richer or for poorer,” that will have once seemed quaint and irrelevant to modern times. Verbal and physical violence will have the potential to escalate when financial problems are seen as “personal.”

(20) The true secret to wealth is to spend less than you earn. Those who will weather the storm best will being now making sure that monthly expenses don’t exceed their income, take active steps now to reduce those expenses, and try and live on one salary. “Voluntary Simplicity”will be more than a slogan for the lucky ones, and the pay off will be first debt reduction or downscaling, and then debt elimination.

We can’t use the previous ‘Great Depression’ as a good guide to how people will react, because there are too many differences between that previous generation and our own. We have very few farmers, and many homesteading skills have been lost. Most of us, now, are city dwellers across the globe, and have become reliant on the culture for our most basic needs. We not only don’t make anything anymore, few of us can do anything anymore that doesn’t require fossil fuel, and most have very little interest in learning. During the Great Spending Contractions, those who have few skills and don’t know the difference between an asset and a liability (hint: your house is a liability because it takes money OUT of your pocket) will be shocked to learn the difference if they are forced to cash out. They will be surprised just how much they can live without, and will feel better about it if it is their choice, and not forced upon them.

References:

(1) Greenspan, A, & Kennedy, J. (2007). Sources and Uses of Equity Extracted from Homes. Finance and Economics Discussion Series Divisions of Research & Statistics and Monetary Affairs, Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C. (pdf found online) www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2007/200720/200720pap.pdf

(2) “Maxed Out” www.maxedoutmovie.com/about/index.html

(3) Wachtel, P. (1983 ). The Poverty of Affluence. New York: Free Press.

Part of My Plan for Global Domination ...

... the Canton Repository might have figured it out first:

Egg prices break new ground
BY SAIMI ROTE BERGMANN and JENNIFER MASTROIANNI
REPOSITORY FOOD WRITERS

On a recent errand run, Joe Galizio felt twice-gouged.

“A week ago, I went to get gas and stopped to get eggs,” said Galizio of North Canton. “I called my wife on the cell phone and said, ‘Geez, it just cost me $3.09 for gas, and now the price of eggs is $2.24.’

She said, ‘What?’

I said, ‘Yep,’ and she said to just get one dozen instead of two.”

The hefty price convinced Margaret Galizio to cut back on the number of pizzelles she’ll make for Christmas. Just a year ago, eggs cost about 79 cents a dozen. This week, local stores are charging $2.25 to $2.49.

“Prices have been going up,” said Jim Chakeres, executive vice president of the Ohio Poultry Association. “It’s not one thing, it’s a list of many.”

MANY REASONS

Contributing factors include fewer laying hens in the country, as well as increases in costs for fuel, labor, employee benefits and feed stuffs, Chakeres said.

David Kress of Kress IGA Foodliner in Canton said egg prices began rising the beginning of November but stabilized in the past week.

Kress said two things account for the price hike — increasing production costs and the holidays.

“The cost of feed, transportation and packaging have all gone up. Chickens eat corn and soy, and both are being used to make ethanol fuel. Styrofoam packaging is a petroleum derivative. Transportation to bring it to the store uses more petroleum.”

Kress said egg prices also spike during this season because of high demand. Eggs are perishable and can’t be stockpiled. “Historically prices do go up during the holidays. In January and February, you’ll see them go down a bit, then another swing up at Easter.”

EXPORTS TO BLAME?

Kress believes the increase in egg prices began two years ago when the U.S. started selling eggs to China.

“Two years ago (eggs) were 69 cents a dozen, then it went to 99, then $1.39, now up over $2. The recent increase has been because of fuel, but the past was because of selling to China.”

Carol Heiser, egg buyer for the Acme Fresh Market chain, says exporting to China has stopped but now there is a shortage of chickens.

“Now they’re saying we have 38 million less birds than a year ago due to animal rights and cracking down on things like how many chickens they can have per cage,” Heiser said. “Usually we see a spike (in demand) at the holidays, then it drops. We’re not seeing the drop — it stayed high.”

Restaurants take hit

Hardest hit businesses include bakeries and restaurants specializing in breakfast.

“We do a high volume of breakfast, that’s our biggest trade,” said Kenny Billman, a partner in Lindsey’s Restaurant in Canton, where customers can get two eggs, two strips of bacon and toast for $2.30.

Billman said he doesn’t plan to pass the increase on to customers. At least not yet.

“We’ll continue to eat that cost,” Billman said. “We’ll ride it out for a good couple months before we actually decide what we’ll do.”

Despite the increases, eggs are still a deal, contends the head of the Ohio Poultry Association.

“A dozen large eggs weigh about a pound and a half,” Chakeres said. “Even at $2, they are one of most affordable sources of protein in grocery stores. And if you look at where prices were 10 years ago and where they were a few months ago, there isn’t that big of a difference.”

http://www.cantonrep.com

Christmas Shopping

I haven't broken down and started yet. The boys have a rather modest list this year. For Will:


*** A Wii (I've warned him, not much chance of finding one)
*** Contact lenses
*** Lava lamp
*** Afro pic


For John:


*** Stephen King book
*** One video game


Interesting to have kids who don't seem to regard Christmas as the end-all, be-all consumer orgy that most folks seem to do. I'm generally of a mind with Jeff Opdyke on this one:


Every year, I complain about the proliferation of gift giving among adults around the holidays. I earn a decent salary, and if there's something I really want, I can go buy it for myself. I see no need for others to buy stuff for me, or for me to buy stuff that others can purchase for themselves.

Kids are different. This is their time of year. I know from my own childhood just how much fun it is tearing into that wrapping paper on Christmas morning to find the cool toys you circled in the Sears catalog way back in November, or included on the list you dispatched to the North Pole.


Now, as a parent, I get that same thrill watching my kids' excitement


Looking forward to at least one Christmas movie, though. Glad to see someone made Charlie Wilson's War into a movie. Charlie was batshit, but he was my grandmother's favorite, and damn near only, congressman for years and years and years.


So, back to the kids and Christmas. Maybe I'll send them to Harvard. I just can't see that this is a bad thing at all -- although I've tried very hard to find the down side:


Harvard to Aid Students High in Middle Class
By SARA RIMER and ALAN FINDER
Published: December 11, 2007

BOSTON, Dec. 10 — Harvard University announced on Monday that it would significantly increase the financial aid it offered to middle-class and upper-middle-class students, seeking to allay concerns that elite colleges are becoming too expensive for even relatively well-off families.

The move, to go into effect in the next school year, appears to make Harvard’s aid to students with household incomes from $120,000 to $180,000 the most generous of any of the country’s prestigious private universities. Harvard will generally charge such students 10 percent of their family household income per year, substantially subsidizing the annual cost of more than $45,600.

Officials said the policy would cut costs by a third to 50 percent for many students and make the real costs of attending Harvard comparable to those at major state universities.

They said the initiative would increase financial aid spending by the university to $120 million annually from $98 million. A little more than half of Harvard undergraduates get some form of aid, including many from families earning $120,000 or more.


Of course, there would be the small issue of grades, etc. (although Will made the honor roll again, and has been toting around "War and Peace" while working on the school play and the local SADD chapter. So maybe there's hope there).


Caramba. Shoulder feels like it's been hit with a ball-peen hammer this morning. Wah. Poor me.

Off the Cuff

If you show me a big pile of horse shit, I would likely be the last person on the face of the earth to visualize a pony. I have never quite caught the idea of using my smile as an umbrella. When life hands me lemons, I generally make a sour face.

Etc.

So I'm a little weirded out by my muted reaction to the MRI results. I do have a torn rotator cuff, and it's almost certainly going to involve some serious embroidery, and it will be a pain in the ass. A painful pain in the ass.

But I guess I'm relieved that it's something, and that I'm not hallucinating the pain. Whew.

Anyway, I'll know more next week. I just hope we can set something up quick before my health insurance split goes from 90/10 to 80/20. Or from 80/20 to 50/50. Or whatever the jackals think they can get away with charging.

Very good article by a distant cousin of mine:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/12/08/AR2007120801526.html

And -- drum roll -- people are actually buying the chicken eggs. At $3.69/dozen. I guess it's a low price for cage-free, organic green eggs. But the folks at the market seem very pleased. I took them eight dozen on Friday, and they'd sold six dozen by Sunday.

Dreary weather here. Ice was falling this morning. Heavy crust of the stuff on everything. Yuck. Ick. Gross.

Off to whinge some more about my shoulder.

Egg-sell-ent!

Couldn't resist. Sorry. I'm a bad person.

Called one of the local markets where I'd dropped some eggs off, and they wanted 'em. So I toted eight dozen brown and green eggs down there. The pay isn't much, but the market folks were mighty impressed and expect they'll be able to sell them very quickly to tourists.

Not much other news to report. Working like a banshee on the day job. Still waiting for word on the MRI and x-rays. Starting to think about spring activities already (!) but I suspect another four or five months of winter is upon us. It's been below zero (with wind chill) twice already, which means a tough time ahead. Generally doesn't get below zero until well into January.

Outrage du jour. Watch where you point that Nikon, civilian:

US military says evidence against AP photographer

to be presented to Iraqi judiciary on Dec. 9

BAGHDAD (AP) -- The U.S. military has set Dec. 9 as the date on which it will submit evidence against an Associated Press photographer to the Iraqi judiciary system, an American official said Thursday.

The move would be the first legal step in initiating formal charges against photographer Bilal Hussein, who was seized in Ramadi on April 12, 2006. Hussein, 36, has been imprisoned without charge ever since.

Navy Capt. Brian J. Bill informed AP counsel Paul Gardephe of the December date in an e-mail Thursday.

A public affairs officer had notified the AP last week that the military intended to submit a written complaint against Hussein as early as Nov. 29. There was no explanation for the change in the date.

Under Iraqi law, an investigating judge will receive and review the evidence. The judge, whose role corresponds roughly to a grand jury, has the power to either dismiss the case or recommend it be referred to a three-judge panel for trial.

Throughout the more than 19 months of his captivity, the U.S. military has refused to specify what charges it might pursue against Hussein, who was part of the AP's Pulitzer Prize-winning photo team in 2005.

Frosty

Woke up Monday to a half-foot of snow on the ground, and more falling. All told, we probably got about 10 inches. At least we've now got firewood -- the guy finally got his truck in working order and dumped a cord on the driveway. It's the small things that count, like not having frozen pipes.

Worked like a dog on the day job all day while the kids slept late and enjoyed a snow day.

Have I mentioned that chickens are not so fun to take care of in the winter? The metal water buckets tend to get a bit icy, and the peeps are kind of testy. It's a wee bit chilly for them -- I'm thinking the wind chill is close to zero this morning -- so they're not venturing out of the coop. And after I built a nice little straw-lined 2'x4' windbreak box for the ducks ... they're just hanging out in the open, freezing their butts off.

Got a call from John's guidance counselor. He's struggling a bit, which, we agreed, is not unusual for a 16-year-old. Sigh. But he is trying harder this year than last, so I really don't have too much to complain about.

Speaking of which, this is just a really neat NY Times story and almost makes me feel badly that I had no idea there was a show called "America's Next Top Model." I suppose this would make me a cultural doofus. Anyway, this woman should've won, for being really brave if nothing else:






December 4, 2007
Well
Asperger’s Syndrome Gets a Very Public Face
By TARA PARKER-POPE


Heather Kuzmich has the neurological disorder known as Asperger’s syndrome. She is socially awkward, has trouble making eye contact and is sometimes the target of her roommates’ jokes.

But what makes the 21-year-old Ms. Kuzmich different from others with Asperger’s is that for the past 11 weeks, her struggle to cope with her disability has played out on national television.

She is one of 13 young women selected by the supermodel Tyra Banks to compete on the popular reality television show “America’s Next Top Model.” The addition of Heather Kuzmich to an otherwise superficial show has given millions of viewers an unusual and compelling glimpse into the little-understood world of Asperger’s.

The disorder, considered a form of autism, is characterized by unusual social interaction and communication skills. Aspies, as people with the condition like to call themselves, often have normal or above-average intelligence, but they have trouble making friends and lack the intuitive ability to gauge social situations. They fail to make eye contact and often exhibit a single-minded fixation that can be both bizarre and brilliant.

By definition, people with Asperger’s are outside the mainstream. Even so, in recent months the syndrome has been cast into the limelight. “Look Me in the Eye,” a memoir about living with Asperger’s by John Elder Robison, who once created special effects for the rock band Kiss, has been a best-seller. In August, the Pulitzer Prize-winning music critic Tim Page wrote a poignant article for The New Yorker about life with undiagnosed Asperger’s.

Mr. Robison says the popular appeal of these stories may be due, in part, to the tendency of people with Asperger’s to be painfully direct — they lack the social filter that prevents other people from speaking their minds.

“It’s important because the world needs to know that there are tremendous differences in human behavior,” said Mr. Robison, whose brother is the writer Augusten Burroughs. “People are all too willing to throw away someone because they don’t respond the way they want. I think books like mine tell the world that there is more to us than that.”

But while Mr. Robison and Mr. Page tell the story of coping with Asperger’s from the perspective of men in their 50s, Heather Kuzmich is just beginning her life as an adult with the disorder. And it is often painful to watch her transition from socially awkward adolescent to socially awkward adult.

A gifted art student from Valparaiso, Ind., she has a lean and angular look well suited to the fashion industry. But her beauty doesn’t mask the challenges of Asperger’s. The show requires her to live in a house with 12 other would-be models, and cattiness and backbiting ensue. Early in the show, she appears socially isolated, the girls whisper about her within earshot, and viewers see her crying on the phone to her mother.

One girl is frustrated when Heather, concentrating on packing a bag, doesn’t hear a request to move out of the way. At one point, the others laugh when they stake out their beds and Heather has no place to sleep.

“I wish I could get the joke,” Heather laments.

“You. You’re the joke,” retorts another model, Bianca, an 18-year-old college student who is from Queens.

If there's such a thing as karma, then perhaps Bianca will soon become Long Island's Next Top Crack-Addled Prostitute. Keep your fingers crossed.

And, just because I can't go a day without seeing something genuinely worrisome:

Riots and hunger feared as demand for grain sends food costs soaring
· Expert to warn industry of threats to world supply·

Biofuels and Chinese boom put pressure on harvests

Jonathan Watts in Beijing

Tuesday December 4, 2007

Guardian

The risks of food riots and malnutrition will surge in the next two years as the global supply of grain comes under more pressure than at any time in 50 years, according to one of the world's leading agricultural researchers.

Recent pasta protests in Italy, tortilla rallies in Mexico and onion demonstrations in India are just the start of the social instability to come unless there is a fundamental shift to boost production of staple foods, Joachim von Braun, the head of the International Food Policy Research Institute, warned in an interview with the Guardian.

The growing appetite of China and other fast-developing nations has combined with the expansion of biofuel programmes in the United States and Europe to transform the global food situation.

After decades of expanding crop yields and falling food prices, the past year has seen a sharp rise in the cost of wheat, rice, corn, soya and dairy products.

"Demand is running away. The world has been consuming more than it produces for five years now. Stocks of grain - of rice, wheat and maize - are down at levels not seen since the early 80s," said von Braun, whose organisation is the world's largest alliance of agricultural researchers, economists, and policy experts.

So far, crises have been averted because states have eaten into national stocks, but this could be set to change because China, in particular, has run down its supplies.

"Over the next 12 to 24 months we are in a fairly risky situation. Large consuming nations, particularly China, will feel pressed to enter international markets to bid up prices to unusual levels," von Braun warned ahead of a speech today to the institute's AGM in Beijing.

Real Winter

... it's supposed to get below zero tonight, with the wind chill. Heavy snow tomorrow night; four to six inches, at least. Sigh. The firewood guy picked a good night to not show up. Kept telling me he was on his way, but never made it here.

I also decided against the fireplace insert after doing some random checking on installation. First, I've got a metal firebox, and most inserts don't do so well in those. Second, I'd have to climb to the top of the roof and drop a 50-foot tube to connect to the insert. I really don't like getting on top of my roof ... so maybe there's someone out there with a masonry fireplace who really needs it.

Up fairly early today, waiting on the firewood guy. Waited until 1030a, then went to the post office to mail some bills. Ran into Brattleboro and grabbed a few 2' x 4' plywood sheets from the salvage place ($1 each!). Went across the street to get snow tires, which had to be done. Of course, since I've got a Subaru -- all-wheel drive -- I had to get four. Damn expensive. Went by the grocery store (Diet Coke and dog food), hardware store (bird suet and nails), and feed store (hay and corn). Back home, and the firewood guy still hadn't shown. Called, and he said he was on his way.

Went outside and used the plywood to create a duck box. For some reason, the ducks just don't like going in the coop with the chickens. So I figured for $6, I could build them a reasonably decent shelter in the run. Of course, now that it's built, they're camped out in subzero weather outside. Fed and watered them, which took longer than usual, since their watering cans were frozen solid. I'll have to start moving watering cans inside at night. They still gave me 14 eggs today. I called the firewood guy, and he said he was having truck trouble but would be there shortly.

Which gave me an idea. Lisa was making kale pie (and bread, and chocolate pecan pie, and turkey soup) and needed milk. I ran down to our little valley market to get some milk. I don't do a whole lot of my shopping there because it's geared more for tourists than residents -- i.e., expensive. True to form, it was pretty mobbed. There were probably more people from Connecticut there tonight than anywhere outside of, say Hartford. Anyway, I got my milk and chatted with the owner's wife about the possibility of selling some organic, free-range green eggs. She sounded interested, but we'll wait and see what happens when her husband gets back next week.

Got home; still no firewood. I think I need to look at other firewood providers here, really quickly.

Here's my screaming outrage of the week. What the hell are these people thinking? I generally don't advocate random vandalism, but if I saw a vehicle (picture at the end), I might be tempted.

December 2, 2007
Housing Crisis? Try Mobile McMansions
By JOHN SCHWARTZ
LOUISVILLE, Ky.

THE magician, dapper and gray-haired, got laughs with card tricks and other feats that were already old when he was still young. And as he deftly linked and separated steel rings, Dick Stoner drew a crowd around an enormous banner that read “Crossroads” — the company paying him so that it could stand out from more than a hundred other manufacturers at the Recreation Vehicle Industry Association’s annual dealer convention in the cavernous Kentucky Exposition Center.

It’s no small trick to attract throngs from some 15,000 footsore attendees at a show that covers 925,000 square feet and is packed with vehicles costing $5,000 to $1 million. But Mr. Stoner is very good at his craft, and his patter is timeless. He blends punch lines and prestidigitation with frequent repetition of the Crossroads moniker.

After all, the $15 billion R.V. industry could use a little magic just now. To read news releases, of course, things are going really, really great! Public relations materials sent to reporters in the weeks before the trade show noted that the current five-year sales period was the best in the last 30 years and that a consumer survey from the University of Michigan had projected a 3.8 percent rise in shipments to manufacturers in the coming year.

In fact, though, things are not really, really great in R.V. land. Sales are slipping. Winnebago announced during the show that its revenue was falling for the first time in six years. And the industry association released updated projections indicating that industrywide sales would probably decline 4.8 percent next year compared with 2007.

It’s easy to see why sales are off. With an uncertain economy, tightening credit and gas prices through the roof, many would-be captains of land yachts are rethinking their dreams. Other issues also loom in a world increasingly worried about waste, sustainability and global warming.

It might be getting harder to love a beast that gulps a gallon of fuel every seven miles.